Early research suggests that a large portion of infected people show few or no symptoms, and few countries are testing comprehensively enough to find them. Likewise, there are many undetected cases, particularly in the United States, where testing was catastrophically delayed. That’s a critical piece that I think a lot of people don’t quite get.” Cases will climb even after lockdowns have started taking effect, and deaths can spike well after a serious outbreak because patients may spend weeks in treatment. “You always have to be thinking: what I’m observing today is a result of what we chose to do a couple of weeks ago. “There is this literal lag in the data,” Virginia Tech biostatistics expert Ronald Fricker tells The Verge. So it takes a while to see the effects of social distancing and quarantine measures. Infected people can take up to 14 days to develop symptoms, and they might wait even longer for a test - if they’re tested at all. General guidelinesĪs many experts have cautioned, even up-to-the-minute maps are effectively operating with a delay. To that end, we’ve put together some of the most helpful public resources - and some factors to keep in mind when you check them. But that takes the right graph and the right perspective on exactly what the numbers mean. If you look at the numbers right, you can get a sense of how well a particular region is doing at containing an outbreak. There are plenty of raw figures to look at - tests executed, confirmed cases, hospitalizations, deaths - and each one can be tracked over time or against total population numbers. But if you want to track the raw mathematical progress of the pandemic, you may need something more specific. News outlets are good sources for specific growth trends and day-by-day increases, particularly when there’s local context for how a region is responding. The virus can breed paranoia nearly as much as disease - and that’s left many people, including Verge staffers, anxiously looking for facts. The respiratory illness it causes, COVID-19, has a wide range of symptoms and a long incubation period by the time most people realize they’re sick, they may have been spreading the virus for days. The novel coronavirus has now reached nearly every corner of the world, leaving billions under lockdown.
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